Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:15:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac64…1d8a sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$25 (+1%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate67%26W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$68
other 48% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +41.0% +27.6% 67% 10% -9.5%
≤30d 39 +41.0% +27.6% 67% 10% -9.5%
≤90d 39 +41.0% +27.6% 67% 10% -9.5%
all 39 +41.0% +27.6% 67% 10% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +27.6% 10% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here +15.4% 8% -18.2%
15% +4.2% 5% -26.1%
20% -6.0% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +84% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$14 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses26 / 13
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage4d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $95 +$14 +15%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $95 +$6 +6%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 −$1 -7%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $50 +$4 +7%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $50 +$2 +5%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $5 $0 +9%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 $0 +6%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $110 −$47 -43%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $109 +$1 +0%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $35 −$11 -30%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $231 −$6 -3%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $117 +$3 +3%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $114 +$1 +1%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $113 +$2 +2%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $113 −$1 -1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $114 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$27 +27%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $99 +$5 +5%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $60 $0 +0%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $59 +$3 +5%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $111 −$24 -22%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $59 +$4 +6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $282 −$11 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $111 +$3 +3%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $53 +$36 +68%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $93 −$1 -1%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $185 +$4 +2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $112 +$11 +10%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $63 +$5 +8%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $49 +$2 +4%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $91 −$12 -14%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $100 −$19 -19%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $73 +$1 +2%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $111 −$28 -26%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $158 +$15 +9%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $99 +$8 +8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $94 +$15 +16%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$17 -17%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $99 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $109 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 86¢ $95 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $101 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 93¢ $95 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 90¢ $9 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 96¢ $10 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $54 4h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $50 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $52 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 94¢ $50 4h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $5 4h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $5 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $5 5h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 93¢ $5 5h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 20¢ $63 31h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 33¢ $110 31h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 88¢ $109 31h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 87¢ $109 31h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 37¢ $7 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $17 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 91¢ $17 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 40¢ $17 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 93¢ $17 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $18 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $102 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 88¢ $111 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 78¢ $99 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $98 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 92¢ $17 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 69¢ $98 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records