Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac63…506d crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-12%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -62.7% -66.3% 25% 25% -66.0%
≤30d 15 -19.2% -26.9% 40% 40% -41.6%
≤90d 15 -19.2% -26.9% 40% 40% -41.6%
all 15 -19.2% -26.9% 40% 40% -41.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 40% -41.6%
10% -33.9% 20% -47.2%
15% -40.3% 13% -52.3%
20% -46.1% 13% -57.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage12d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$4 +367%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$3 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $5 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $2 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $3 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $9 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records