Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:27:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac62…0bcb other 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$523 (+0%) realized +$452 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%14W / 124L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$1,541per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$626now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$20
14 days−$160
30 days−$399
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$124
politics 37% −$107
sports 6% +$696
economics 4% −$10
tech 1% +$2
culture 1% −$3
world 1% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 63 -9.0% -17.7% 8% 5% -9.9%
≤90d 138 -3.8% -12.9% 10% 6% -9.3%
all 138 -3.8% -12.9% 10% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 6% -9.3%
10% -21.3% 6% -18.0%
15% -28.9% 6% -25.9%
20% -35.8% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,958) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$6 · ×14.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$626
Realized+$452
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses14 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage89d
Avg bet$1,541
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $627 $626 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1,481 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $3,028 −$4 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $128 +$2 +2%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $1,564 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $3,154 −$4 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $1,160 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $3,508 −$4 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,486 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,346 −$2 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $72 +$55 +76%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $720 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $748 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $3,690 −$4 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $734 −$1 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $59 −$59 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $443 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,958 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $3,084 −$4 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $2,088 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 27 $445 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $2,408 −$4 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $3,037 −$5 -0%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $72 +$65 +90%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $665 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $66 −$66 -100%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $762 −$1 -0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $2,357 −$3 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,959 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $2,246 −$3 -0%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $441 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $3,315 −$5 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 19 $1,211 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $627 1h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $703 18h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $704 19h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $690 36h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $691 44h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $640 2d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $641 2d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $515 3d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $515 4d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $601 4d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $602 4d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $514 4d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $514 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $421 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $422 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $209 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 98¢ $128 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $596 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $209 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $597 6d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $616 6d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $616 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $813 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $814 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $511 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $512 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $554 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $555 7d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $739 8d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $740 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $626.40 · official $626.40 (match) · 436 history records