Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:53:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AC
0xac62…164f
finance · 21 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$15 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$12 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$33
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)17 / 21
History coverage73d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 4 History 17 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 76¢ 90¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+19%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 74¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Grand Prix Hassan II: Corentin Moutet vs Marco Trungelliti Corentin Moutet 65¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-05? No 63¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $12 +$2 +21%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 08 $2 $0 -24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +23%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $31 −$1 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 21 $3 $0 -10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? May 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 01 $57 −$2 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 26 $1 $0 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 06 $6 $0 -2%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $2 −$2 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 05 $10 $0 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 05 $24 $0 -1%
Bucharest Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Dino Prizmic Apr 03 $5 +$19 +388%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Corentin Moutet vs Marco Trungelliti Apr 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Vit Kopriva vs Hamad Medjedovic Apr 01 $20 +$3 +17%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Marco Trungelliti vs Kamil Majchrzak Apr 01 $3 +$1 +23%
Bucharest Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Botic van de Zandschulp Apr 01 $19 −$6 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
finance 53% $0
crypto 25% +$2
sports 20% +$16
other 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $2 2m
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $2 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $1 3h
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $2 24h
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $13 31h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $2 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $2 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $2 4d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $2 4d
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $2 4d
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $2 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $2 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $2 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $2 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $2 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $2 4d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $2 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 68¢ $2 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $2 5d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $2 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? SELL No 46¢ $1 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 57¢ $1 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 58¢ $2 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 87¢ $2 5d
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $3 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $2 6d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $2 6d
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $2 6d
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $2 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +6.6% -3.5% 67% 67% +5.9%
≤30d 5 +1.3% -8.3% 40% 40% -7.0%
≤90d 17 +12.0% +1.3% 41% 29% -3.9%
all 17 +12.0% +1.3% 41% 29% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 29% -3.9%
10% -8.4% 18% -13.1%
15% -17.2% 6% -21.5%
20% -25.4% 6% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.37 · official $33.37 (match) · 165 history records