Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:56:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AC 0xac62…c79a other 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$104 (+2%) realized +$100 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%18W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$424now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days+$296
14 days+$107
30 days+$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$33
sports 26% +$207
crypto 5% −$29
world 2% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +12.6% +1.9% 36% 36% -1.1%
≤30d 53 +4.8% -5.2% 34% 34% -6.7%
≤90d 53 +4.8% -5.2% 34% 34% -6.7%
all 53 +4.8% -5.2% 34% 34% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 34% -6.7%
10% -14.3% 34% -15.7%
15% -22.6% 32% -23.8%
20% -30.2% 28% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$53 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$424
Realized+$100
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses18 / 35
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions5
Markets (closed)53 / 58
History coverage9d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $306 +$83 +27%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $51 +$30 +60%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$39 -77%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $51 −$32 -63%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$10 -20%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 +$20 +39%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$131 +129%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 +$151 +74%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$176 +344%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$135 +1310%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $154 −$58 -38%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$268 +262%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$112 +56%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 +$306 +596%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $389 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 17h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 17h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 17h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 17h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 21h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $12 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 34h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 34h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL No 10¢ $19 44h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 26¢ $51 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 20¢ $41 45h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $71 45h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $54 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $423.87 · official $423.87 (match) · 90 history records