Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AC 0xac61…4f1b crypto 1020 markets active 12h ago coverage 65d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16,068 (-18%) realized −$16,068 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%533W / 762L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day51.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 65d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$6,168
world 12% +$396
other 0% +$35
politics 0% −$14
economics 0% −$48
weather 0% −$7
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-40.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 383 -82.2% -83.9% 7% 7% -89.3%
≤30d 645 -49.4% -54.2% 30% 26% -45.1%
≤90d 1295 -33.7% -40.0% 41% 36% -34.6%
all 1295 -33.7% -40.0% 41% 36% -34.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.0% 36% -34.6%
10% ← realistic here -45.8% 27% -40.8%
15% -51.0% 20% -46.6%
20% -55.8% 14% -51.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$62 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16,068
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses533 / 762
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1295 / 1020
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$87
Trades / day51.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1295 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -4378%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $244 −$244 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $408 −$408 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $180 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$33 -14825%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $148 −$148 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$5 -127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$34 -71%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $336 −$336 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $492 −$492 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $195 −$195 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $198 −$198 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 5, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $348 −$348 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $220 −$220 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1717%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $13 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $22 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $19 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $19 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $18 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $18 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $14 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $72 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $81 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $62 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $124 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $32 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $85 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $54 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $25 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $17 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records