Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac5f…d808 other 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$32 (+5%) realized +$14 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -77% what you keep after slip
Net edge-77%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%17W / 175L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days−$75
14 days−$80
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-74.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 -82.5% -84.1% 6% 6% -24.8%
≤30d 192 -72.3% -74.9% 9% 9% -24.7%
≤90d 192 -72.3% -74.9% 9% 9% -24.7%
all 192 -72.3% -74.9% 9% 9% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -74.9% 9% -24.7%
10% -77.3% 8% -31.9%
15% -79.5% 6% -38.5%
20% -81.5% 6% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -72% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×6.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses17 / 175
Open positions17
Markets (closed)192 / 57
History coverage29d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 10¢ 20¢ $8 $17 +$8 (+101%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 9¢ 20¢ $7 $17 +$9 (+123%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 21¢ 36¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+73%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 5¢ 18¢ $3 $11 +$8 (+261%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 6¢ 14¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+138%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+173%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+78%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 154 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets in May 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets in May 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets in May 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets in May 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets in May 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets in May 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets in May 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in May 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in May 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets in May 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets in May 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1840-1919 tweets in May 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets in May 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in May 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1760-1839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets in May 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in May 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in May 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets in May 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets in May 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1560-1599 tweets in May 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets in May 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1480-1519 tweets in May 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $14 25m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 29m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 31m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 12h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 12h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 12h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $6 12h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 18h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 20h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 20h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 22h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 23h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 23h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 23h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 23h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 23h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 23h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 23h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 23h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 23h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 23h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 23h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 23h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 23h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 23h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 23h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.66 · official $70.66 (match) · 286 history records