Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:07:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AC 0xac5d…7270 sports 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 521d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$133 (+10%) realized +$139 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate81%39W / 9L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$7
14 days−$8
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$103
sports 26% −$5
other 19% −$4
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -7.3% -16.1% 73% 64% -13.7%
≤30d 20 -1.9% -11.2% 80% 65% -6.8%
≤90d 26 -6.8% -15.7% 77% 58% -10.7%
all 48 +4.5% -5.5% 81% 67% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 67% -1.5%
10% -14.5% 35% -11.0%
15% -22.8% 17% -19.6%
20% -30.4% 8% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$16 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

521d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized+$139
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses39 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)48 / 51
History coverage521d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 56¢ 69¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Under 78¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Under 83¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 +$6 +27%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 +$6 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $20 +$2 +10%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$8 +50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $101 +$13 +13%
UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $17 +$2 +12%
Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5) Jun 01 $10 +$1 +6%
Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5 May 24 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $10 +$2 +17%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 May 21 $10 −$10 -99%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 May 19 $25 +$7 +27%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $100 +$20 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down on August 5? Apr 06 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $113K on August 4 at 5PM ET? Aug 05 $40 +$4 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $118K on August 1? Aug 04 $31 +$9 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July? Aug 01 $19 +$12 +67%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Jul 04 $16 +$2 +15%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 14 at 5 Jun 14 $15 −$13 -86%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2600 on June 13 at 5 PM ET? Jun 14 $26 +$4 +14%
Will PSG win 2-1? Jun 01 $23 +$3 +12%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in April? May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? May 31 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in April? Apr 08 $10 +$12 +117%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in April? Apr 06 $20 +$5 +23%
Flames vs. Avalanche Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana above $130 on April 4? Apr 05 $26 +$12 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90000 and $88000 on April 4? Apr 05 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 again by March 31? Apr 01 $53 +$14 +27%
Clippers vs. Cavaliers Mar 31 $10 +$3 +33%
Warriors vs. Spurs Mar 31 $20 +$4 +19%
Trail Blazers vs. Knicks Mar 31 $10 +$3 +33%
Tennessee vs. Houston Mar 31 $30 +$4 +15%
Solana above $130 on March 28? Mar 29 $30 +$44 +148%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 28 $25 +$9 +38%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 24 $50 +$3 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1 24m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $30 1h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 78¢ $20 30h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $10 44h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $15 47h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $10 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 90¢ $10 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $10 8d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $10 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 8d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $10 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $103 19d
UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 89¢ $17 20d
Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5) BUY Red Bull Bragantino 94¢ $10 20d
Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $10 27d
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 73¢ $10 30d
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 30d
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $25 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 88¢ $101 32d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 93¢ $19 35d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 93¢ $100 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY No 82¢ $100 75d
Ethereum Up or Down on August 5? BUY Up 71¢ $44 319d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $113K on August 4 at 5PM ET? BUY No 91¢ $40 320d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.68 · official $124.70 (match) · 117 history records