Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:58:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac5c…49ac sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,271 (-11%) realized −$771 · open −$500
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$950per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$737now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$631
sports 50% −$1,257
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -9.4% -18.0% 44% 44% -21.9%
≤30d 9 -9.4% -18.0% 44% 44% -21.9%
≤90d 9 -9.4% -18.0% 44% 44% -21.9%
all 9 -9.4% -18.0% 44% 44% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 44% -21.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 22% -29.4%
15% -33.0% 0% -36.2%
20% -39.6% 0% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$181 vs −$423 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$737
Realized−$771
Unrealized−$500
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$950
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5 Under 84¢ 99¢ $353 $415 +$62 (+18%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 58¢ 14¢ $796 $198 −$598 (-75%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Under 68¢ 96¢ $88 $124 +$36 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $846 +$192 +23%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $192 −$3 -1%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 27 $409 −$321 -78%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $430 +$91 +21%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $2,778 −$1,336 -48%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $999 +$114 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,234 +$328 +27%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $589 −$161 -27%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2,669 −$292 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $354 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $617 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,038 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $189 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 77¢ $190 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $89 2h
Spread: England (-3.5) SELL England 5¢ $0 3h
Spread: England (-3.5) SELL England 5¢ $88 3h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $192 11h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $846 11h
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY England 22¢ $409 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $521 20h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 20¢ $232 20h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 61¢ $694 20h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1,628 20h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 31¢ $516 21h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 77¢ $1,112 21h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 68¢ $999 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $430 23h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 28¢ $428 23h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $589 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 57¢ $563 25h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $1,150 25h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 32¢ $1,135 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,234 37h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 35¢ $1,242 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $306 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $1,835 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $367 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $121 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $736.90 · official $736.90 (match) · 32 history records