Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:40:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AC 0xac5c…aa54 sports 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$64 (+5%) realized +$63 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%36W / 24L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$10
14 days+$56
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -3.8% -12.9% 61% 61% -11.0%
≤30d 60 -6.4% -15.3% 60% 60% -5.0%
≤90d 60 -6.4% -15.3% 60% 60% -5.0%
all 60 -6.4% -15.3% 60% 60% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 60% -5.0%
10% -23.4% 52% -14.1%
15% -30.8% 43% -22.4%
20% -37.6% 25% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$13 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses36 / 24
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)60 / 63
History coverage13d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Virtus.pro 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs MOUZ 67¢ 70¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs L1ga Team 58¢ 58¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $53 +$8 +16%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $20 +$16 +79%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $40 −$40 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $20 +$15 +73%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $40 +$20 +49%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $35 +$23 +65%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $55 +$20 +36%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $42 +$13 +32%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $29 +$22 +76%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $15 −$1 -4%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $25 +$4 +14%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $15 +$11 +73%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 20 $30 +$13 +42%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $10 +$3 +31%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $10 +$7 +70%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Amer Jun 15 $10 +$4 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 +$12 +114%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$15 +145%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $10 +$4 +43%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 +$9 +62%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $20 +$6 +27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$21 +101%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$10 +48%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $11 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $92 +$24 +26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $9 +$2 +24%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $31 +$37 +121%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $10 +$4 +41%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $30 +$5 +17%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 +$10 +66%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 58¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MOUZ 67¢ $20 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Virtus.pro 58¢ $30 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Team Spirit 86¢ $53 29h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 62¢ $20 41h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 58¢ $30 44h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY GLYPH 67¢ $30 45h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL GLYPH 100¢ $35 45h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY GLYPH 57¢ $20 46h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout SELL Execration 100¢ $60 46h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 66¢ $40 2d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 60¢ $10 2d
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 69¢ $20 2d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 55¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $10 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $75 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 73¢ $55 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $55 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 75¢ $42 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $10 2d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner SELL OG 100¢ $52 2d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 56¢ $29 2d
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner SELL Enjoy 63¢ $0 2d
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Enjoy 100¢ $29 2d
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Enjoy 87¢ $25 2d
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner SELL Enjoy 61¢ $14 2d
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner BUY Enjoy 62¢ $15 2d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner SELL OG 100¢ $26 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $15 2d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 57¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.87 · official $60.87 (match) · 110 history records