Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:34:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac5a…5f11 sports 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$197 (-10%) realized −$197 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%58W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$130
other 17% −$17
crypto 1% −$20
world 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -10.6% -19.1% 46% 44% -11.0%
≤30d 132 +4.7% -5.3% 44% 43% -17.6%
≤90d 132 +4.7% -5.3% 44% 43% -17.6%
all 132 +4.7% -5.3% 44% 43% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 43% -17.6%
10% -14.3% 42% -25.5%
15% -22.6% 38% -32.7%
20% -30.2% 37% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$197
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses58 / 74
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)132 / 132
History coverage28d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 132 Trades
no open positions (64 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $52 +$27 +52%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $31 +$21 +67%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 22 $15 +$16 +104%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 22 $50 −$49 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $32 −$32 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Akira Santillan Jun 22 $23 +$6 +26%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $11 −$11 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan Jun 22 $5 +$21 +408%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Lautaro Midon Jun 22 $25 +$13 +51%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Max Houkes Jun 22 $78 +$23 +29%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 22 $40 +$38 +93%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -99%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $92 +$14 +16%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski Jun 21 $64 +$1 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $10 +$21 +206%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 21 $12 −$12 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk Jun 21 $36 −$1 -2%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 21 $70 +$18 +25%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $28 +$31 +109%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $16 +$12 +73%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $44 −$42 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $18 +$26 +139%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$8 +81%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $29 −$29 -99%
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Will U Jun 19 $14 +$15 +104%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $2 +$2 +97%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $17 −$16 -91%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $10 +$7 +70%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $11 −$11 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Hanyu Guo Jun 07 $21 −$21 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Storm Hunter vs Aliaksandra Sasnovi Jun 07 $60 −$60 -99%
Libema Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Lin Zhu Jun 07 $58 +$19 +33%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $22 +$19 +86%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $11 −$11 -98%
Australia vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $3 +$5 +149%
Portugal vs. Chile: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $3 +$3 +114%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
England vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $52 6h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $52 6h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $31 8h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists SELL Yes 100¢ $31 10h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $50 12h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 48¢ $15 14h
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Alexandra Eala 45¢ $15 15h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $32 15h
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Akira Santillan SELL Cezar Cretu 86¢ $29 15h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 57¢ $17 16h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Raphael Collignon 50¢ $11 17h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan SELL Fabian Marozsan 99¢ $26 17h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan BUY Fabian Marozsan 19¢ $5 18h
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Akira Santillan BUY Cezar Cretu 67¢ $23 19h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Lautaro Midon SELL Hugo Gaston 99¢ $38 19h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Lautaro Midon BUY Hugo Gaston 65¢ $25 19h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Max Houkes SELL Laslo Djere 100¢ $101 19h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Max Houkes BUY Laslo Djere 77¢ $78 22h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $40 34h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 35h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $14 37h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots BUY Yes $1 37h
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo BUY Adolfo Vallejo 24¢ $5 37h
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $6 38h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $107 38h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $92 39h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 99¢ $11 39h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 35¢ $4 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 224 history records