Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:51:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac57…65cc culture 175 markets active 0h ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,396 (-3%) realized −$1,289 · open −$107
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate87%136W / 21L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$299per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$6,104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$142
14 days+$292
30 days+$419
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$372
culture 41% +$362
politics 9% −$1,275
world 1% +$28
tech 1% −$208
weather 0% +$7
finance 0% +$15
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -7.2%
≤30d 36 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤90d 119 -7.6% -16.4% 86% 2% -12.4%
all 157 -3.7% -12.8% 87% 10% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 10% -12.2%
10% -21.2% 6% -20.6%
15% -28.8% 4% -28.2%
20% -35.8% 1% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$503) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$153 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$6,104
Realized−$1,289
Unrealized−$107
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses136 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions18
Markets (closed)157 / 175
History coverage187d
Avg bet$299
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 90¢ 86¢ $1,167 $1,122 −$45 (-4%)
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $1,001 $989 −$13 (-1%)
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this week? Yes 98¢ 96¢ $670 $659 −$11 (-2%)
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Yes 99¢ 97¢ $646 $637 −$8 (-1%)
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 90¢ 86¢ $504 $478 −$26 (-5%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 93¢ 89¢ $463 $445 −$18 (-4%)
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? No 86¢ 86¢ $370 $370 +$0 (+0%)
Will "The Witness" be the top global Netflix show this week? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $359 $360 +$1 (+0%)
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $323 $337 +$14 (+4%)
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $286 $285 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $160 $156 −$4 (-2%)
Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? Yes 80¢ 91¢ $120 $136 +$16 (+14%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $80 $84 +$4 (+5%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Yes 52¢ 23¢ $29 $12 −$16 (-56%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 63¢ 56¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-12%)
Will "Iceman - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of June 20? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 68¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on Jun 12 $420 +$4 +1%
Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidenti Jun 11 $144 +$8 +6%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $435 +$45 +10%
Will "Iceman - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of Ju Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 11 $301 +$6 +2%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 11 $308 +$8 +3%
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 11 $556 +$8 +1%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 11 $649 +$8 +1%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 11 $803 +$22 +3%
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 11 $989 +$22 +2%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top global Netflix show thi Jun 11 $1,001 +$11 +1%
Will "The Crash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 05 $75 +$1 +1%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Jun 05 $282 +$3 +1%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the we Jun 05 $478 +$14 +3%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 05 $518 +$6 +1%
Will "Ladies First" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 05 $755 +$11 +2%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 05 $961 +$41 +4%
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 05 $970 +$40 +4%
Will "The Crash" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 05 $983 +$34 +4%
Will "The Crash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 27 $63 +$1 +1%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? May 27 $86 +$1 +1%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the we May 27 $263 +$4 +2%
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? May 27 $506 +$13 +2%
Will "Nemesis" be the top global Netflix show this week? May 27 $564 +$6 +1%
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 27 $756 +$17 +2%
Will "The Crash" be the top global Netflix movie this week? May 27 $976 +$14 +2%
Will "Nemesis" be the top US Netflix show this week? May 27 $994 +$16 +2%
Will "Swapped" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? May 27 $993 +$17 +2%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? May 25 $110 +$1 +1%
Will "Billie Jean - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on Spotify this we May 25 $197 +$2 +1%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the #2 US Netflix movie this wee May 19 $60 +$1 +1%
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week May 19 $142 +$1 +1%
Will "Swapped" be the top global Netflix movie this week? May 19 $409 +$7 +2%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the #2 global Netflix movie this May 19 $667 +$24 +4%
Will "Beauty and a Beat - Justin Bieber, Nicki Minaj" be the #1 song o May 19 $16 $0 +1%
Will "The Great Divide - Noah Kahan" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for May 19 $89 +$1 +1%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 15? May 13 $209 −$209 -100%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the #2 US Netflix movie this wee May 13 $991 +$19 +2%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 12 $991 −$991 -100%
Will "Swapped" be the top global Netflix movie this week? May 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Will "Man on Fire" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 12 $334 +$4 +1%
Will "Swapped" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 12 $392 +$5 +1%
Will "Man on Fire" be the top global Netflix show this week? May 12 $435 +$5 +1%
Will "Apex" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? May 12 $524 +$13 +2%
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this we May 09 $794 +$15 +2%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi May 07 $184 −$184 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 C May 07 $80 −$79 -99%
Will Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 07 $37 −$36 -97%
Will "Apex" be the top global Netflix movie this week? May 05 $6 $0 +1%
Will "Apex" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 05 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we BUY Yes 97¢ $28 7m
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we BUY Yes 97¢ $29 37m
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we BUY Yes 98¢ $30 1h
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we BUY Yes 98¢ $28 1h
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we BUY Yes 98¢ $10 2h
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we BUY Yes 98¢ $11 2h
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 global Netflix show this BUY Yes 99¢ $20 3h
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we BUY Yes 99¢ $30 3h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 97¢ $8 4h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 97¢ $30 5h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 97¢ $30 5h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 97¢ $30 6h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 97¢ $30 6h
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 global Netflix show this BUY Yes 99¢ $20 6h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 97¢ $30 7h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 97¢ $30 7h
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 global Netflix show this BUY Yes 99¢ $20 7h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 97¢ $30 8h
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 global Netflix show this BUY Yes 99¢ $30 8h
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we BUY Yes 99¢ $30 8h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 8h
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 global Netflix show this BUY Yes 99¢ $30 8h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 98¢ $19 9h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 9h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 10h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 98¢ $23 10h
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we BUY Yes 99¢ $30 10h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 11h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 11h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,103.68 · official $6,113.50 (match) · 2288 history records