Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AC 0xac56…c4ae crypto 1995 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$162 (-4%) realized −$162 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate69%1216W / 543L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day48.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$53
14 days+$136
30 days+$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$100
other 16% +$11
weather 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 331 +12.2% +1.5% 72% 72% +1.8%
≤30d 1513 +6.2% -3.9% 67% 63% -5.8%
≤90d 1759 +5.2% -4.8% 69% 60% -7.0%
all 1759 +5.2% -4.8% 69% 60% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 60% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 55% -15.9%
15% -22.2% 51% -24.0%
20% -29.8% 39% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$162
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses1216 / 543
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1759 / 1995
History coverage43d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day48.1
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1759 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +152%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +40%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +36%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +40%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +40%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +34%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +42%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 25m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 33m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 7h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 11h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 11h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 11h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 11h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3259 history records