Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:03:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AC 0xac52…b336 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$95 (+13%) realized +$99 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$396now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +24.4% +12.5% 100% 100% +12.5%
≤30d 1 +24.4% +12.5% 100% 100% +12.5%
≤90d 1 +24.4% +12.5% 100% 100% +12.5%
all 1 +24.4% +12.5% 100% 100% +12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.5% 100% +12.5%
10% +1.8% 100% +1.8%
15% -8.1% 0% -8.1%
20% -17.1% 0% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$77 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$396
Realized+$99
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1 / 5
History coverage12d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 88¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 81¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $318 +$77 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $100 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $395 4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $395.93 · official $395.93 (match) · 21 history records