Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:43:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AC 0xac51…eefa other 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-0%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$22
politics 23% −$8
economics 6% −$2
sports 6% −$11
culture 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 109 -3.0% -12.3% 8% 6% -9.7%
all 109 -3.0% -12.3% 8% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 6% -9.7%
10% -20.7% 6% -18.3%
15% -28.3% 6% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×6.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)109 / 111
History coverage88d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $331 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $34 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $41 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $40 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $111 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $330 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 30 $58 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $258 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $256 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $251 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 17 $242 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $240 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $236 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 14 $245 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $239 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $249 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $249 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $262 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $802 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $257 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $263 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 02 $267 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $248 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $257 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 29 $250 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 28 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $271 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $263 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $253 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $259 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $254 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $245 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $471 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 1h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 24h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 26h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 43h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $150 2d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 7d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 7d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 7d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 8d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 9d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 9d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 9d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 12d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 12d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $41 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 14d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 16d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $58 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $58 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.49 · official $191.49 (match) · 315 history records