Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:34:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac4c…3813 other 258 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%9W / 249L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$14
14 days−$26
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$42
sports 25% −$18
politics 10% −$9
crypto 7% −$5
economics 5% −$4
culture 5% −$5
world 4% −$5
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 188 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 258 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses9 / 249
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)258 / 258
History coverage133d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 258 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $354 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $119 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $481 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $365 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $848 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $167 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $506 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $276 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $438 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $161 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $86 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $293 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $261 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $373 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $411 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $694 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $224 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $148 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $227 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $225 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $466 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $369 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $65 −$1 -2%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $140 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $315 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $158 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 07 $284 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $393 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 05 $290 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $248 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $773 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $284 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $513 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 1h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 2h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 17h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 19h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 19h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 20h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $59 23h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $59 25h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 29h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 31h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 32h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 33h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 35h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 36h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 38h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 40h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $60 41h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $60 43h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $60 44h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $60 46h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $10 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1363 history records