Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:16:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AC
0xac4a…bf1e
world · 134 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$52,604 +26%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,312 · open +$10,142
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$154,775
Realized+$4,312
Unrealized+$10,142
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses22 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions500
Markets (closed)35 / 134
Avg bet$1,535
Trades / day3320.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 500 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,312
7 days+$4,312
14 days+$4,312
30 days+$4,312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 72¢ 77¢ $8,134 $8,690 +$556 (+7%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 60¢ 88¢ $3,695 $5,466 +$1,771 (+48%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? No 81¢ 56¢ $7,814 $5,374 −$2,440 (-31%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 96¢ 99¢ $4,849 $4,994 +$145 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 60¢ 88¢ $3,194 $4,677 +$1,483 (+46%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 81¢ $4,502 $4,529 +$27 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 80¢ 80¢ $4,432 $4,430 −$2 (-0%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 40¢ 50¢ $3,396 $4,325 +$929 (+27%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 96¢ 94¢ $3,689 $3,591 −$98 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 48¢ 54¢ $3,028 $3,387 +$359 (+12%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 93¢ 95¢ $3,319 $3,387 +$68 (+2%)
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? Yes 87¢ 99¢ $2,952 $3,379 +$427 (+14%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 80¢ 97¢ $2,459 $2,961 +$502 (+20%)
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more? Yes 40¢ 99¢ $1,120 $2,806 +$1,686 (+151%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? No 94¢ 99¢ $2,489 $2,639 +$150 (+6%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 90¢ 94¢ $2,462 $2,559 +$97 (+4%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 96¢ 98¢ $2,433 $2,484 +$50 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 85¢ 86¢ $2,299 $2,335 +$36 (+2%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 62¢ 61¢ $2,199 $2,160 −$39 (-2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,850 $1,893 +$43 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 11¢ 26¢ $787 $1,869 +$1,082 (+137%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 70¢ 61¢ $2,067 $1,796 −$271 (-13%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $1,535 $1,716 +$181 (+12%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $1,627 $1,691 +$64 (+4%)
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No 78¢ 89¢ $1,441 $1,646 +$205 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 12 $650 +$303 +47%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $1,639 +$97 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $1,389 +$888 +64%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $140 −$85 -60%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $249 −$14 -6%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $6 +$28 +514%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 12 $127 −$22 -17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $122 −$7 -6%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 12 $16 −$1 -5%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $82 +$307 +376%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $41 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $779 −$9 -1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Jun 12 $12 +$954 +7692%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 12 $426 −$360 -85%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 12 $36 −$2 -5%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Jun 12 $5 $0 -8%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $11 +$32 +282%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 12 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 12 $1,872 +$80 +4%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $69 +$36 +53%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +21%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $135 +$106 +79%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 11 $71 +$1,909 +2674%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 11 $1,016 +$17 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 11 $200 +$27 +14%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $95 −$25 -26%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 11 $3 +$45 +1738%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 59% +$3,523
other 31% +$8,457
tech 6% +$3,325
finance 2% −$520
politics 1% +$58
culture 0% −$383
sports 0% −$8
economics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 0m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 1m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 1m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 1m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 87¢ $174 1m
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 SELL Yes 16¢ $8 1m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL No 25¢ $3 1m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL No 47¢ $9 2m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $8 2m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 2m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 39¢ $19 2m
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 2m
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 2m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $1 2m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3m
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 26¢ $26 4m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $15 4m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $126 4m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes 14¢ $1 5m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 6¢ $19 6m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6m
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $5 7m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 17¢ $8 8m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 37¢ $18 8m
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 8m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL No 48¢ $4 8m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $108 8m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+171.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +200.3% +171.7% 63% 40% +20.9%
≤30d 35 +200.3% +171.7% 63% 40% +20.9%
≤90d 35 +200.3% +171.7% 63% 40% +20.9%
all 35 +200.3% +171.7% 63% 40% +20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3320.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +171.7% 40% +20.9%
10% ← realistic here +145.7% 29% +9.4%
15% +122.0% 29% -1.2%
20% +100.2% 26% -10.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154,774.62 · official $156,061.47 (match) · 3500 history records