Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:32:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac48…5064 crypto 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day82.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -29.6% -36.3% 36% 21% -13.2%
≤30d 33 -29.6% -36.3% 36% 21% -13.2%
≤90d 33 -29.6% -36.3% 36% 21% -13.2%
all 33 -29.6% -36.3% 36% 21% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.3% 21% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -42.4% 21% -21.5%
15% -48.0% 12% -29.1%
20% -53.1% 12% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$32 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day82.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $105 −$82 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 28 $155 +$52 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 28 $209 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $501 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 28 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 28 $1,011 −$14 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 28 $52 +$51 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 28 $432 +$30 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 28 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $520 −$163 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $204 −$13 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $131 +$268 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $78 −$13 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $52 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$13 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$3 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $19 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $7 +$12 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $23 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $150 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $57 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $96 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $112 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $510 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $501 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $220 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $501 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $510 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $510 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $103 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $432 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $287 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $309 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records