Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:58:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac47…d65e world 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 327d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate23%18W / 59L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$6
sports 30% −$8
other 16% −$3
economics 6% $0
politics 4% −$3
culture 2% $0
finance 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.6% -9.0% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 32 -0.0% -9.6% 41% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 46 +0.3% -9.3% 33% 2% -9.5%
all 77 -0.2% -9.7% 23% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 1% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

327d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses18 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage327d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $67 $68 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $93 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $90 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $142 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $192 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $92 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $102 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $90 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $73 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $192 +$3 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $198 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $12 −$1 -4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $182 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $130 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $76 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $347 +$1 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $555 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 03 $94 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $173 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $94 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $72 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $14 −$1 -6%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $93 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $6 $0 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $10 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $84 +$3 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $93 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 22 $188 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $93 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $94 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $93 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $96 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $87 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $183 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $545 −$4 -1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $545 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $568 −$2 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $547 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $399 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $602 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $52 $0 +0%
Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5) Mar 11 $26 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 10 $155 −$2 -1%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 09 $171 $0 +0%
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 8.5 Mar 09 $63 −$3 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $33 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $9 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $84 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $78 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $14 18h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 33h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 33h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $102 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $102 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $102 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $102 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $92 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $19 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $23 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $9 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $17 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $15 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $27 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $27 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $40 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $40 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $52 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.83 · official $67.71 (match) · 310 history records