Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:18:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AC
0xac45…66dc
sports · 506 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$375 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$389 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Net worth$13
Realized−$389
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses158 / 340
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions4
Markets (closed)498 / 506
History coverage97d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 4 History 498 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$39
14 days−$46
30 days−$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+13%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) Thunder 15¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Hapoel Tel Aviv FC vs. Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC end in a draw? Yes 27¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5) Cavaliers 20¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Mexico 31¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Spurs 39¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) Crystal Palace FC 22¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 FC Bayern München? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 38¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Cavaliers 39¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 202.5 Under 49¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. AEK: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Cavaliers 71¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Thunder 47¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 30¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Yes 26¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 Over 44¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 13? Yes 15¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 Over 19¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 9? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 9? No $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +44%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +74%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -89%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 +$4 +55%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$11 +225%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -10%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 +$3 +134%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $3 +$1 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 +$1 +129%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +114%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $3 +$4 +146%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 11 $2 +$3 +124%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $9 +$3 +36%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$6 +109%
1H Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $7 +$2 +31%
England leading at halftime? Jun 06 $3 +$4 +146%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $16 +$4 +23%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 58% −$320
other 38% −$23
crypto 3% −$53
world 1% +$6
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 69¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $4 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Curaçao $0 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 51¢ $4 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will BUY 18¢ $5 9h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 45¢ $10 9h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 30¢ $3 16h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 31¢ $3 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 16h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 19h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 20h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 12¢ $1 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 20h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 20h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $2 28h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $8 28h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $7 28h
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) BUY Spurs 28¢ $2 28h
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Spurs 34¢ $2 28h
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Spurs 42¢ $2 28h
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 46¢ $2 28h
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 54¢ $3 28h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $2 30h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 30h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 47h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 13¢ $1 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-38.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -39.5% -45.3% 30% 30% -34.4%
≤30d 163 -37.2% -43.2% 28% 28% -32.9%
≤90d 471 -31.5% -38.0% 32% 32% -25.4%
all 498 -31.9% -38.4% 32% 32% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.4% 32% -26.5%
10% -44.3% 30% -33.6%
15% -49.6% 27% -40.0%
20% -54.6% 22% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.88 · official $27.88 · 772 history records