Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:49:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac39…95c7 sports 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,503 (-2%) realized −$11,364 · open −$139
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%63W / 119L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,052per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$10,210est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$528now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days−$709
14 days−$2,302
30 days−$11,170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$16,605
other 3% +$2,507
crypto 1% −$3,118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -18.7% -26.4% 40% 40% -30.1%
≤30d 52 -8.6% -17.3% 29% 29% -34.9%
≤90d 181 -5.0% -14.0% 34% 33% -12.3%
all 182 -4.4% -13.5% 35% 33% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 33% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 31% -20.7%
15% -29.3% 30% -28.3%
20% -36.3% 30% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$1,773) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,462 vs −$1,976 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$528
Realized−$11,364
Unrealized−$139
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses63 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$10,210
Open positions1
Markets (closed)182 / 183
History coverage95d
Avg bet$3,052
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 35¢ 28¢ $666 $528 −$139 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $1,172 −$1,155 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $609 +$566 +93%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $580 +$659 +114%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $775 −$775 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $55 −$55 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southea Jun 05 $97 −$97 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 05 $389 −$389 -100%
Prostejov: Taro Daniel vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 05 $505 −$505 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $1,048 −$545 -52%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 G May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 31 $1,842 −$1,842 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 29 $869 −$869 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 29 $1,421 −$1,421 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Katerina Siniakova May 29 $1,773 −$1,773 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi May 29 $4,899 −$4,899 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series May 28 $508 +$1,268 +249%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 28 $2,491 +$2,919 +117%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $44 −$44 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $255 −$255 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $618 −$618 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $415 −$415 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Andrey Rublev May 28 $977 −$518 -53%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 28 $654 −$654 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 28 $4,065 −$4,065 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $479 +$2,014 +421%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elsa Jacquemot May 28 $1,295 −$858 -66%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Claire Liu May 28 $219 +$1,117 +510%
Roland Garros WTA: Daria Kasatkina vs Susan Bandecchi May 28 $576 −$359 -62%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 27 $1,618 +$3,103 +192%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $600 +$1,634 +272%
LoL: BIG vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs May 27 $726 −$125 -17%
Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar May 27 $582 +$1,162 +200%
Will Cusco FC win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Will CR Flamengo vs. Cusco FC end in a draw? May 27 $650 −$650 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $167 +$327 +196%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 27 $385 −$385 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 27 $3,592 −$3,592 -100%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante May 26 $1,456 +$2,142 +147%
Roland Garros WTA: Liudmila Samsonova vs Jil Teichmann May 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 25 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League May 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 25 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Fina May 25 $98 −$98 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 23 $2 +$5 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 22 $26 +$22 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 35¢ $567 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 35¢ $112 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 52¢ $1,172 5h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 100¢ $1,175 5h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $609 6h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 100¢ $1,239 6h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 46¢ $580 8h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 5¢ $4 3d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur BUY Adrian Mannarino 19¢ $775 3d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 9¢ $2 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Diana Shnaider 33¢ $389 12d
Prostejov: Taro Daniel vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 41¢ $505 12d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL BIG 20¢ $503 12d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 40¢ $1,048 12d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 25¢ $55 12d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southea BUY Mentality Monster 35¢ $97 12d
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 G BUY HEROIC Academy 13¢ $11 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar BUY Alex Michelsen 17¢ $1,842 18d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 49¢ $1,421 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas BUY Stefanos Tsitsipas 36¢ $869 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 26¢ $1,767 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 21¢ $6 19d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series SELL ex-Zero Tenacity 99¢ $1,776 19d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY ex-Zero Tenacity 26¢ $240 19d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY ex-Zero Tenacity 29¢ $268 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi BUY Luciano Darderi 31¢ $4,899 19d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Los Angeles Angels 93¢ $5,409 19d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Los Angeles Angels 42¢ $49 19d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Los Angeles Angels 42¢ $2,442 19d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs SELL 9z 99¢ $2,492 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $527.89 · official $527.89 (match) · 1232 history records