Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:07:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AC 0xac38…efff crypto 453 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (135 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,998 (-18%) realized −$1,858 · open −$140
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate31%132W / 294L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day135.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$857
7 days−$828
14 days−$538
30 days−$621
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$844
world 35% +$86
other 1% +$16
tech 0% −$3
finance 0% −$3
politics 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (135 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 231 -49.4% -54.2% 23% 17% -25.0%
≤30d 426 -24.7% -31.9% 31% 25% -15.2%
≤90d 426 -24.7% -31.9% 31% 25% -15.2%
all 426 -24.7% -31.9% 31% 25% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover135.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.9% 25% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -38.4% 19% -23.3%
15% -44.3% 15% -30.8%
20% -49.8% 12% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$1,858
Unrealized−$140
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses132 / 294
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions27
Markets (closed)426 / 453
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day135.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 426 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 19¢ 8¢ $38 $17 −$21 (-55%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+4%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $11 $8 −$2 (-23%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 15¢ 2¢ $46 $7 −$39 (-85%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $17 $7 −$10 (-60%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $6 −$3 (-34%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-24%)
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $14 $4 −$10 (-72%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? No 9¢ 4¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-51%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 4¢ 1¢ $13 $2 −$11 (-84%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-55%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-48%)
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-74%)
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$3 (-72%)
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-77%)
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$9 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$11 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$8 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$5 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$8 +125%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $32 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $53 −$9 -17%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$3 -36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $32 −$14 -45%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $22 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$11 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $29 −$8 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$8 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$6 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$8 +46%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 15 $22 +$6 +27%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $17 +$14 +81%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$6 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$14 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$10 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$19 +219%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 58m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 0¢ $0 59m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.70 · official $99.73 (match) · 3500 history records