Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:17:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac34…320e sports 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,423 (-62%) realized −$2,423 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%27W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$1
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$2,412
politics 33% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +32.4% +19.8% 62% 62% +11.5%
≤30d 31 +30.5% +18.1% 65% 65% +11.9%
≤90d 60 -8.2% -17.0% 45% 45% -66.0%
all 60 -8.2% -17.0% 45% 45% -66.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 45% -66.0%
10% -24.9% 45% -69.3%
15% -32.2% 43% -72.2%
20% -38.8% 37% -75.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$76 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$2,423
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses27 / 33
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage88d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $3 +$4 +146%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $3 +$3 +86%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 13 $4 +$5 +117%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $2 +$3 +129%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 09 $5 +$4 +82%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 03 $4 +$5 +119%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 02 $6 +$3 +49%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 May 30 $5 +$3 +56%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 May 30 $5 +$2 +49%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 May 28 $2 +$5 +300%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 27 $4 +$3 +72%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 May 26 $6 +$2 +38%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 25 $2 +$3 +150%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 May 23 $3 +$3 +109%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5 May 21 $2 +$4 +158%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 May 20 $2 +$2 +100%
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5) May 20 $3 +$2 +59%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5 May 20 $3 +$3 +134%
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 20 $4 +$2 +64%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5 May 20 $5 +$1 +29%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 7.5 May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $1,280 −$10 -1%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) May 11 $3 +$3 +92%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 11 $3 +$3 +122%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5 May 11 $4 +$2 +46%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 211.5 May 11 $4 +$3 +85%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5 May 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5 May 04 $4 +$4 +122%
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5 May 04 $5 +$4 +85%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 214.5 May 04 $4 +$5 +108%
Spread: Pistons (-9.5) May 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 210.5 May 01 $4 −$4 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 213.5 Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 214.5 Apr 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5 Apr 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 Apr 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Senators vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Apr 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5 Apr 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5 Apr 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 40¢ $3 22h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 47h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 46¢ $0 2d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 46¢ $1 2d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 46¢ $3 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $4 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 4d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 45¢ $3 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 7d
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) BUY Knicks 45¢ $2 8d
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) BUY Knicks 45¢ $2 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 BUY Over 56¢ $4 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Over 42¢ $3 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 11d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 45¢ $4 12d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 67¢ $5 13d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 67¢ $0 13d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 25¢ $1 14d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 25¢ $2 14d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 64¢ $1 15d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 64¢ $2 15d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 64¢ $1 15d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 67¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.49 · official $3.49 (match) · 148 history records