Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:59:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac31…92a4 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 431d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-2%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$6
other 12% −$2
politics 10% +$1
crypto 7% −$4
finance 6% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -1.7% -11.1% 25% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 10 -21.4% -28.9% 20% 0% -11.4%
all 29 -13.1% -21.4% 38% 0% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 0% -11.5%
10% -28.9% 0% -20.0%
15% -35.8% 0% -27.7%
20% -42.1% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

431d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage431d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $34 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $34 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $43 −$5 -12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 4–11? Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jack Doohan be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 24 $4 $0 -2%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 24 $2 −$1 -28%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $15 $0 +3%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 04 $16 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 2% and 5% of the vote in the South Korea Jun 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 02 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 18 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 17 $9 −$4 -49%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 16 $12 $0 -1%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 15 $21 $0 -1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $35 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $34 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 42h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $30 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $29 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $5 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $32 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $37 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $31 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $34 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $38 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $43 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 9d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 9d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 9d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 9d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $29 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 96¢ $10 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 96¢ $30 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 97¢ $40 11d
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 4–11? BUY Yes $0 344d
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? SELL No 100¢ $10 359d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records