Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:56:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AC 0xac2c…9de2 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$254 (+35%) realized +$89 · open +$165
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip
Net edge+37%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day24.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$324now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$246
other 22% +$165
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)+61.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +78.2% +61.3% 83% 83% +30.0%
≤30d 6 +78.2% +61.3% 83% 83% +30.0%
≤90d 6 +78.2% +61.3% 83% 83% +30.0%
all 6 +78.2% +61.3% 83% 83% +30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +61.3% 83% +30.0%
10% ← realistic here +45.8% 83% +17.6%
15% +31.7% 67% +6.2%
20% +18.8% 67% -4.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +78% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$155 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$324
Realized+$89
Unrealized+$165
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 35¢ 72¢ $159 $324 +$165 (+104%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $176 +$202 +115%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $69 +$22 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $162 +$170 +105%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $155 −$155 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $3 +$7 +238%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $24 58m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $8 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $78 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $52 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $91 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $8 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $6 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $9 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $9 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $9 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $9 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $8 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $4 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $13 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $39 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $9 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $2 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $1 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $6 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $324.02 · official $324.02 (match) · 60 history records