Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:57:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac27…73ab other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate34%15W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% $0
other 34% +$1
politics 5% $0
tech 4% −$1
economics 2% $0
weather 2% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.8% -8.8% 20% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 9 +6.5% -3.7% 33% 11% -8.6%
≤90d 17 +5.5% -4.6% 29% 12% -9.5%
all 44 +0.2% -9.3% 34% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 7% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 5% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 5% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses15 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage470d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 93¢ 94¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $18 +$1 +4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $40 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $36 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $1 +$1 +53%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $18 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $35 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $27 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $54 −$4 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 22 $6 +$2 +43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $12 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 20 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 19 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be from another party? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 26 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? May 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23? May 20 $14 $0 -1%
Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 19 $14 $0 +2%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 16 $13 +$2 +12%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 12 $10 $0 -1%
Will AppLovin buy TikTok? Apr 11 $4 $0 -3%
Circle IPO in 2025? Apr 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will egg prices be less than $5.00 in March? Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Apr 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? Mar 24 $13 $0 +1%
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $12 +$1 +8%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $12 $0 +1%
Did Kanye sell his twitter account? Mar 10 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $37 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $18 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $40 40h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $36 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $36 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $3 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 71¢ $37 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 70¢ $36 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $18 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $18 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $25 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 89¢ $22 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 89¢ $4 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 91¢ $27 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $40 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $43 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.40 · official $37.40 (match) · 117 history records