Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AC 0xac27…18e7 sports 1215 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 116d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$200 (-0%) realized −$200 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate64%773W / 441L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Fees−$550est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$69
14 days−$24
30 days−$835
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$117
other 1% −$250
world 0% +$4
crypto 0% +$1
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +4.9% -5.1% 70% 56% -5.7%
≤30d 224 -2.0% -11.3% 61% 46% -14.8%
≤90d 950 -1.7% -11.1% 63% 44% -9.8%
all 1214 +0.4% -9.2% 64% 43% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 43% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 18% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 9% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$37 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$200
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses773 / 441
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$550
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1214 / 1215
History coverage117d ⚠
Avg bet$137
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 76¢ $58 $57 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $43 +$15 +34%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $98 +$25 +26%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $73 −$4 -6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $65 +$8 +12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $57 −$14 -24%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $114 +$14 +12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $98 +$15 +15%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $28 −$9 -31%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $136 +$29 +21%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $107 +$8 +7%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $24 −$2 -10%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$13 +42%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $48 +$13 +26%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $42 +$6 +14%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $65 −$25 -39%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $49 +$19 +38%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $75 −$26 -35%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $70 +$5 +7%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $120 +$2 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $46 +$22 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $46 +$1 +2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $21 +$4 +19%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $29 +$13 +44%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $39 −$10 -26%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $34 +$5 +14%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $28 +$6 +21%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $60 −$60 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $50 +$17 +34%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $40 +$7 +17%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $55 +$4 +7%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $16 +$8 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $35 −$16 -46%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $30 +$4 +13%
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $26 +$5 +19%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $24 +$2 +8%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $56 −$32 -57%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $40 +$9 +23%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 2 Winn Jun 09 $43 +$4 +8%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 1 Winn Jun 09 $40 +$2 +5%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 204.5 Jun 09 $32 +$10 +30%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $32 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $30 +$1 +3%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $26 −$15 -56%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $24 +$2 +8%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $58 −$34 -58%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $89 −$31 -35%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $108 −$26 -24%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $209 −$29 -14%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $142 +$3 +2%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $130 +$11 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $58 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $58 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $43 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $123 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $98 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 72¢ $69 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $73 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $72 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $65 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 62¢ $44 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $57 27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 44h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $128 44h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $114 45h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $8 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $90 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 53¢ $19 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $28 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $77 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $77 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $56 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 70¢ $57 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $59 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 56¢ $38 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $50 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 61¢ $21 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 66¢ $24 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $43 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 69¢ $30 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.32 · official $57.32 (match) · 3500 history records