Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AC 0xac26…5af0 politics 136 markets active 3h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$14
other 41% −$11
sports 6% +$9
crypto 4% −$1
world 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 124 +1.4% -8.2% 5% 4% -9.4%
all 135 -1.2% -10.6% 6% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 4% -9.6%
10% -19.2% 4% -18.2%
15% -27.0% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.1% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×12.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 127
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage115d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $173 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $195 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $170 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 22 $194 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $143 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $388 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $153 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $316 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $338 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 17 $195 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $208 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $149 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $176 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $208 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $146 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $172 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $317 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $150 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $191 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $199 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $43 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $373 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $160 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $321 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $170 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $148 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $172 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $179 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $286 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $321 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $163 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $168 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $188 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $291 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $157 −$1 -1%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $219 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $342 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 2h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 2h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 6h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 12h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 6d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $34 6d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $34 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 7d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 7d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 7d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 9d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 10d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $33 10d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $33 11d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 12d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $22 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 13d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 13d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 14d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 14d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 15d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 21d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 21d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $195 26d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $195 26d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $170 27d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $170 29d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $194 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.98 · official $34.98 (match) · 384 history records