Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:37:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac23…9cec crypto 392 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$710 (-10%) realized −$710 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate79%310W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$189
7 days−$189
14 days−$189
30 days−$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$901
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -30.9% -37.5% 58% 33% -34.3%
≤30d 12 -30.9% -37.5% 58% 33% -34.3%
≤90d 225 -11.0% -19.5% 72% 33% -31.9%
all 392 -2.0% -11.4% 79% 40% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 40% -20.8%
10% -19.8% 18% -28.4%
15% -27.6% 10% -35.3%
20% -34.7% 6% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$21 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$710
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses310 / 82
Open positions0
Markets (closed)392 / 392
History coverage125d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 392 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $69 −$68 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $42 +$27 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $150 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $125 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 24 $24 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 24 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 24 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 24 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 24 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 24 $22 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 24 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 24 $23 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 24 $44 −$40 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 24 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 24 $12 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 24 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 24 $36 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 24 $45 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 24 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 24 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 24 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 24 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 24 $24 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 24 $27 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 24 $19 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 24 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 24 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 24 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 24 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 24 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 24 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 24 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 24 $122 −$119 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 24 $13 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 24 $117 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 24 $90 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 24 $93 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 24 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 24 $104 +$13 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1619 history records