trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -1.5% | -10.8% | 45% | 0% | -11.0% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -1.1% | -10.5% | 50% | 0% | -10.6% |
| all | 21 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 52% | 5% | -10.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.9% | 5% | -10.6% |
| 10% | -18.5% | 5% | -19.1% |
| 15% | -26.4% | 5% | -27.0% |
| 20% | -33.6% | 5% | -34.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | No | 67¢ | 67¢ | $35 | $35 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 17 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 26 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 25 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 25 | $30 | +$1 | +5% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 25 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 23 | $28 | −$5 | -19% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | May 23 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 21 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | May 19 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 19 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 19 | $6 | $0 | -7% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 18 | $30 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? | Dec 15 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 | May 21 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? | May 19 | $2 | +$2 | +106% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? | Apr 16 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Atalanta win the Serie A? | Mar 26 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 19 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 7-14? | Mar 15 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 09 | $1 | $0 | -3% |