Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AC 0xac20…cd24 other 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$26 (+10%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate59%27W / 19L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$28
world 16% +$1
crypto 16% +$3
politics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
finance 2% $0
economics 2% −$1
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 9 -8.6% -17.3% 89% 0% -13.2%
≤90d 20 +15.1% +4.2% 60% 15% -4.4%
all 46 +17.1% +6.0% 59% 24% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.0% 24% +2.4%
10% -4.2% 17% -7.4%
15% -13.4% 13% -16.4%
20% -21.9% 13% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses27 / 19
Open positions27
Markets (closed)46 / 73
History coverage116d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? No 98¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 90¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 94¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? No 80¢ 86¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? No 94¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $720 in May? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $700 in May? No 96¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $680 in May? No 95¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 95¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No 95¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 95¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 64¢ 85¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+33%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No 79¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No 91¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 78¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 56¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? May 28 $2 $0 +6%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May? May 28 $2 −$1 -99%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $720 in May? May 27 $2 $0 +2%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $700 in May? May 27 $2 $0 +4%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $680 in May? May 27 $2 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 26 $4 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 15 $44 −$43 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 15 $3 −$1 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Apr 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31? Apr 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Apr 15 $3 $0 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Apr 15 $7 +$66 +936%
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3 Mar 02 $1 $0 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 02 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Feb 28 $5 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Black" or "Hispanic" during the 2026 State of the Unio Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paramount Skydance (PSKY) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 28 $4 −$4 -83%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during t Feb 28 $1 $0 +16%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $2 +$1 +26%
Will the State of the Union address be delayed? Feb 28 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Lincoln" during the State of the Union address? Feb 28 $1 +$1 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 28 $4 +$23 +596%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Feb 26 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times in Rome, GA on February 19? Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wuthering Heights be the highest grossing movie this weekend? Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 24 $1 −$1 -71%
Will "Crime 101" Second Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m? Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 24 $2 $0 +6%
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026 Feb 24 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Crypto" in Rome, GA on February 19? Feb 24 $1 +$2 +170%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 24 $2 +$8 +426%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 19 $33 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 40m
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 51m
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 56m
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 5h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $0 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $2 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $0 36h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 36h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $0 37h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $0 38h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $0 38h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 39h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 39h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 41h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $0 46h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 46h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $1 46h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $0 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.18 · official $68.07 · 315 history records