Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:17:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AC 0xac1f…61ef weather 10 markets active 5d ago coverage 85d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$551per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% $0
other 17% $0
world 17% $0
politics 17% $0
crypto 16% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 10 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage85d
Avg bet$551
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 22? May 21 $6 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Mar 19 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 19 $924 $0 +0%
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 19 $920 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem Mar 19 $924 $0 +0%
Will Calum Ritchie win the 2025–2026 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy? Mar 19 $924 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 19 $872 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? Mar 19 $924 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $6 4d
Will White House post 120-139 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 26d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $6 55d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $924 89d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $924 89d
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 99¢ $60 89d
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 99¢ $860 89d
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 99¢ $920 89d
Will Alexander Isak be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem SELL No 100¢ $268 89d
Will Alexander Isak be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem SELL No 100¢ $656 89d
Will Alexander Isak be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem BUY No 100¢ $924 89d
Will Calum Ritchie win the 2025–2026 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy? SELL No 100¢ $184 89d
Will Calum Ritchie win the 2025–2026 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy? SELL No 100¢ $740 89d
Will Calum Ritchie win the 2025–2026 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy? BUY No 100¢ $924 89d
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $872 89d
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $872 89d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? SELL No 99¢ $2 89d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? SELL No 99¢ $922 89d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? BUY No 99¢ $924 89d
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records