Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:34:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac1c…d8b5 sports 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,118 (+19%) realized +$3,633 · open +$485
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%11W / 38L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$408per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$247est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$4,485now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 90d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$1,809
other 16% +$655
crypto 3% −$693
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +10.4% -0.1% 16% 16% -29.5%
≤30d 38 +10.4% -0.1% 16% 16% -29.5%
≤90d 48 +2.8% -7.0% 21% 21% -29.6%
all 49 +3.8% -6.1% 22% 22% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 22% -29.5%
10% -15.1% 18% -36.3%
15% -23.3% 18% -42.4%
20% -30.8% 18% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +103% → late -91% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$521 vs −$212 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$4,485
Realized+$3,633
Unrealized+$485
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$247
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 52
History coverage90d
Avg bet$408
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 73¢ 100¢ $2,000 $2,753 +$753 (+38%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1,000 $967 −$33 (-3%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 40¢ $1,000 $764 −$236 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $7,307 −$700 -10%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,016 +$1,170 +115%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $408 −$400 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NB Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the Conference Finals in the 202 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 15 $206 −$206 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $316 −$316 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $608 −$608 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $609 −$609 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 15 $409 −$409 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $307 −$307 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $612 −$612 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $318 −$318 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 15 $451 −$451 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 15 $874 −$874 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $121 −$121 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 +$351 +172%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $307 +$1,359 +442%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $15 +$141 +914%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $103 +$1,895 +1843%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $703 +$767 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 08 $5 +$11 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Celtics Apr 27 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Lakers vs. Pacers Apr 27 $50 +$7 +14%
Lakers vs. Heat Mar 24 $22 +$22 +100%
Warriors vs. Celtics Mar 24 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 17 $7 +$3 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,014 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $2,016 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $12,817 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,186 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,016 2h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 53¢ $1,521 3h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 50¢ $5,075 3h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $710 3h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $408 4h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $1,013 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 19h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $316 21h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $304 21h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 17¢ $205 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $555 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $509 22h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $25 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $204 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $406 25h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 9¢ $103 25h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 24¢ $409 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 25h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 57¢ $206 25h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 22¢ $266 26h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 5¢ $42 26h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 27h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $608 27h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 56¢ $203 27h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 51¢ $406 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,485.04 · official $4,484.85 (match) · 112 history records