Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:15:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AC 0xac1b…22c1 other 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+0%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate18%18W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$3
politics 17% −$13
economics 9% −$1
tech 7% −$1
sports 4% +$35
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 +5.1% -4.9% 21% 7% -8.9%
≤90d 101 +5.8% -4.2% 18% 13% -9.4%
all 101 +5.8% -4.2% 18% 13% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 13% -9.4%
10% -13.4% 13% -18.1%
15% -21.8% 12% -26.0%
20% -29.4% 11% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses18 / 83
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage84d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $125 $125 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 05 $61 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 05 $78 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 27 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $343 $0 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $9 +$7 +73%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 16 $202 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $192 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $194 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $194 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 08 $212 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $206 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 06 $204 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 05 $206 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 05 $406 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $197 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $826 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $198 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $209 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 02 $202 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $199 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $353 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $408 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 19 $214 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $202 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $359 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 18 $435 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $379 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $588 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $205 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $354 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $204 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $350 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 14 $360 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 13 $216 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $209 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 13 $351 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $220 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 12 $218 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $238 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $125 1h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $31 3d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 3d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 4d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 4d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $29 9d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $29 9d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 11d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 11d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $41 11d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $41 12d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $25 20d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $25 20d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $36 20d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $36 20d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $61 21d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $37 22d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $37 22d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $46 25d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 25d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $36 26d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $36 27d
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $9 27d
Will Solana reach $160 in May? BUY No 100¢ $78 28d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 28d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 29d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $202 32d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $202 32d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $192 32d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $192 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.57 · official $124.57 (match) · 279 history records