Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:56:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac19…c3ff other 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$356 (-12%) realized −$420 · open +$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%33W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$397now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$142
7 days−$98
14 days−$397
30 days−$453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$237
sports 26% +$111
crypto 7% −$149
world 2% −$49
tech 1% −$20
politics 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +1.5% -8.1% 51% 51% -17.6%
≤30d 66 -14.6% -22.7% 42% 39% -29.2%
≤90d 69 -11.3% -19.7% 45% 42% -26.8%
all 72 -11.4% -19.9% 46% 42% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 42% -26.8%
10% -27.5% 40% -33.8%
15% -34.5% 36% -40.2%
20% -41.0% 28% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$28 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$397
Realized−$420
Unrealized+$64
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses33 / 39
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)72 / 78
History coverage213d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $170 $232 +$62 (+37%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $89 $95 +$6 (+7%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 60¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $24 $19 −$5 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $25 +$12 +46%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $25 −$12 -46%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $25 +$28 +109%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$46 +226%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$9 +34%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $52 −$15 -29%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 −$16 -78%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $35 +$10 +29%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $60 −$1 -2%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $25 +$16 +65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 +$16 +62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $25 +$19 +75%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$11 +109%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$19 +93%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $26 +$25 +97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $74 +$23 +30%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$26 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $131 −$131 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$10 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$12 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 +$25 +97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$20 +134%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $54 +$48 +90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $23 +$27 +114%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$26 -52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 +$3 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$53 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 14 $37 −$26 -70%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $25 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $25 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 52¢ $13 6h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 95¢ $25 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 6h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $30 6h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $25 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $20 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $34 26h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $14 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 74¢ $25 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 11¢ $4 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 27h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 77¢ $35 32h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $20 40h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $20 41h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 66¢ $40 2d
Ecuador to win the second half? AND Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY 53¢ $25 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 84¢ $59 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $60 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $20 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 60¢ $25 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $25 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $25 4d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 99¢ $44 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $397.30 · official $397.30 (match) · 225 history records