Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:22:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac16…6c6a sports 111 markets active 0h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,438 (-13%) realized −$1,419 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate69%76W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$756
7 days−$1,787
14 days−$1,787
30 days−$1,787
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$1,376
sports 32% −$340
politics 18% +$938
culture 1% −$18
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -49.6% -54.4% 30% 15% -31.0%
≤30d 20 -49.6% -54.4% 30% 15% -31.0%
≤90d 20 -49.6% -54.4% 30% 15% -31.0%
all 110 -2.5% -11.8% 69% 59% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 59% -16.2%
10% -20.3% 48% -24.2%
15% -28.0% 26% -31.5%
20% -35.0% 8% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$89 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$1,419
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses76 / 34
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage178d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $327 +$672 +206%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$22 -22%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $2,040 +$50 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $104 +$55 +53%
Canadiens vs. Capitals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. 76ers Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Kings Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Lakers vs. Kings Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Warriors Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Old Dominion Monarchs vs. Georgia Southern Eagles Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
76ers vs. Raptors Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Canadiens vs. Bruins Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Clippers vs. Pistons Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Motion Picture – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics Jun 15 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,209 −$2,205 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,003 +$102 +5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $156 +$8 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$57 +57%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Mar 16 $100 +$180 +180%
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? Mar 16 $800 +$580 +72%
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? Mar 16 $100 −$25 -25%
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? Mar 16 $50 −$18 -35%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Mar 10 $50 −$24 -47%
Will Tarique Rahman be the next Prime Minister of Bangladesh after the Feb 18 $400 +$106 +26%
UIC Flames vs. Bradley Braves Feb 02 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside Feb 02 $300 +$110 +37%
Kansas Jayhawks vs. Kansas State Wildcats Jan 25 $10 +$3 +27%
Red Wings vs. Jets Jan 25 $10 +$3 +32%
Will PPSO win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assem Jan 23 $20 +$9 +42%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 23 $80 +$84 +105%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jan 23 $100 +$38 +38%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 20 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-01-18? Jan 19 $5 +$3 +52%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 18 $29 +$22 +76%
Will FC Alverca win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $38 +$3 +8%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $5 +$2 +37%
Lightning vs. Blues Jan 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Knicks vs. Warriors Jan 16 $5 +$2 +43%
Bucks vs. Spurs Jan 16 $5 +$2 +45%
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? Jan 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Wizards vs. Clippers Jan 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bulls vs. Rockets Jan 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Suns vs. Heat Jan 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors Jan 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Flames vs. Blue Jackets Jan 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jan 14 $5 +$2 +35%
Islanders vs. Jets Jan 14 $5 +$2 +45%
Canucks vs. Canadiens Jan 13 $5 +$2 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $92 20m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $8 21m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $327 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $40 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $40 6h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 7h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $272 22h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $41 22h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $318 22h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $49 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $49 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $382 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $59 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $432 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $41 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $52 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $2 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $326 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $2 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $2 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $2 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $2 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $2 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $2 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $2 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $2 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $2 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $89 30h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 62¢ $19 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.25 · official $93.75 · 286 history records