Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac13…4182 other 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 608d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$61 (+0%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate22%16W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$13
other 14% −$47
politics 11% −$7
economics 2% $0
sports 2% +$129
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 +5.5% -4.5% 19% 6% -8.2%
≤90d 58 -3.7% -12.8% 17% 12% -9.9%
all 74 -0.1% -9.6% 22% 12% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 12% -9.2%
10% -18.3% 12% -17.9%
15% -26.2% 12% -25.9%
20% -33.4% 9% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$3 · ×4.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

608d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses16 / 58
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage608d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $97 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $32 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 06 $61 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $33 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 27 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $18 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $9 +$9 +90%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $145 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 11 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 06 $147 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 03 $146 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $135 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $134 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 02 $134 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $134 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $134 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $145 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $139 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $147 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $134 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $286 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $138 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 24 $134 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $138 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $144 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $147 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $140 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $138 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $143 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $139 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $146 $0 -0%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 13 $14 −$1 -7%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $128 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $16 +$11 +72%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $15 +$14 +90%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $13 +$14 +108%
Flames vs. Golden Knights Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Jets vs. Blackhawks Apr 02 $24 −$24 -100%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Mar 31 $29 +$14 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $97 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 3d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 3d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 3d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 5d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $19 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 10d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 11d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 11d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 20d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 20d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $35 21d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $35 21d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $31 21d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $31 22d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $42 22d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 25d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 25d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 26d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 26d
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals BUY New York Mets 52¢ $9 27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $22 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 28d
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $61 28d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 28d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 28d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $145 29d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $145 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.64 · official $96.64 (match) · 281 history records