Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:07:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AC 0xac11…9d3a other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 379d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,933 (-9%) realized −$5,644 · open +$711
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%22W / 35L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$929per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,795now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$668
7 days−$688
14 days−$601
30 days−$11,354
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$4,187
politics 19% +$270
economics 18% +$1,193
other 11% +$736
tech 3% −$1,805
sports 3% +$174
finance 1% −$380
crypto 0% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -79.8% -81.7% 14% 14% -95.3%
≤30d 12 -48.9% -53.8% 33% 25% -88.3%
≤90d 41 -61.2% -64.9% 27% 24% -44.5%
all 57 -4.7% -13.8% 39% 35% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 35% -17.7%
10% -22.1% 32% -25.6%
15% -29.6% 25% -32.8%
20% -36.5% 19% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$917) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +72% → late -79% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$811 vs −$646 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

379d coverage
Net worth$1,795
Realized−$5,644
Unrealized+$711
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses22 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)57 / 60
History coverage379d
Avg bet$929
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 100¢ $695 $1,400 +$704 (+101%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $270 $275 +$5 (+2%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $118 $120 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 +$11 +42%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $73 −$73 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $183 −$183 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $221 −$221 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $101 +$87 +86%
Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026? Jun 02 $475 +$20 +4%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $9,443 −$9,427 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $1,798 −$1,779 -99%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 18 $531 +$432 +81%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $110 −$106 -96%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5) May 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on February 4? May 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? May 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? May 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? May 15 $152 −$152 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? May 15 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27? May 15 $422 −$422 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 15 $360 −$360 -100%
US government shutdown by October 1? May 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump say "April Fool" or "April Fool's" during Address to the Na May 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? May 15 $380 −$380 -100%
Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation? May 15 $320 −$320 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? May 15 $858 −$858 -100%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? May 15 $786 −$786 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 15 $1,410 −$1,410 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? May 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $297 −$297 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $1,805 −$1,805 -100%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $177 +$43 +25%
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $5,201 +$1,786 +34%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 14 $3,420 +$2,580 +75%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 04 $1,450 −$1,450 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $917 +$136 +15%
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $11 +$4 +37%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $896 +$104 +12%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $2,553 +$2,047 +80%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 05 $3,650 +$2,957 +81%
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Rese Mar 02 $269 +$567 +211%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $2,980 −$1,112 -37%
Will one person dissent the January Fed decision? Jan 29 $90 +$110 +122%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 13 $1,360 +$640 +47%
Fed rate cut in 2025? Sep 18 $1,358 +$464 +34%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $4,057 +$2,290 +56%
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025? Sep 08 $304 +$21 +7%
Megaquake before August? Aug 04 $54 +$946 +1752%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 15¢ $37 40m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 9¢ $18 42m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 54m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 54m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 54m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $26 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $67 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $67 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $67 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $67 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $37 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $365 15h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $18 21h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $203 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $183 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 27h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $101 40h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $30 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 2d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO SELL Yes 95¢ $119 2d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO SELL Yes 95¢ $114 3d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO SELL Yes 95¢ $581 3d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO SELL Yes 95¢ $7 4d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO SELL Yes 94¢ $93 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 4d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO SELL Yes 94¢ $206 5d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO SELL Yes 94¢ $21 5d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO SELL Yes 94¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,795.00 · official $1,795.00 (match) · 642 history records