Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AC 0xac0f…a1f9 other 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$182 (-6%) realized −$192 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%30W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$412
14 days−$285
30 days−$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$105
sports 25% −$168
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -27.9% -34.8% 37% 33% -24.1%
≤30d 71 -14.2% -22.4% 42% 38% -18.4%
≤90d 71 -14.2% -22.4% 42% 38% -18.4%
all 71 -14.2% -22.4% 42% 38% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 38% -18.4%
10% -29.8% 37% -26.2%
15% -36.6% 32% -33.3%
20% -42.8% 23% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$27 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$320
Realized−$192
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses30 / 41
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)71 / 75
History coverage10d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 66¢ 69¢ $174 $184 +$10 (+6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 48¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $100 −$33 -32%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $46 −$39 -85%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $76 −$76 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $8 +$8 +96%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$2 -45%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$9 -84%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $150 +$16 +10%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 +$19 +38%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $15 −$12 -76%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$9 +62%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $3 $0 -3%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$7 +29%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 +$25 +161%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $76 −$76 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 −$73 -72%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$15 +29%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $152 +$75 +49%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $226 +$31 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $69 +$34 +49%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$36 +234%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $251 −$251 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$15 +284%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 59¢ $68 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 6¢ $7 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 4h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $55 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 9h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 9h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 9h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $45 13h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $46 13h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 13h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 14h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 23h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 25h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 29h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 29h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 11¢ $2 34h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $3 38h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $16 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $150 41h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $320.41 · official $320.43 (match) · 163 history records