Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:38:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac0d…9880 crypto 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$33 (+3%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate53%57W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$19
14 days−$3
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +30.3% +17.9% 54% 39% -4.3%
≤30d 107 +13.5% +2.7% 53% 38% -7.8%
≤90d 107 +13.5% +2.7% 53% 38% -7.8%
all 107 +13.5% +2.7% 53% 38% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 38% -7.8%
10% -7.1% 29% -16.7%
15% -16.1% 22% -24.7%
20% -24.3% 22% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses57 / 50
Open positions0
Markets (closed)107 / 107
History coverage21d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 107 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$7 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $33 −$9 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$12 +334%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +839%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $11 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $7 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $8 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $0 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.00 · official $7.00 (match) · 377 history records