Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:26:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AC 0xac0a…f89e sports 166 markets active 17d ago coverage 93d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$160,537 (+9%) realized +$160,537 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate23%102W / 338L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10,854per market
Trades / day35.7pace
Fees−$6,935est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 93d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$159,587
tech 13% +$25,177
other 3% −$5,605
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 274 -77.1% -79.3% 3% 3% -96.5%
≤30d 306 -45.1% -50.3% 11% 10% -63.4%
≤90d 329 -41.2% -46.8% 14% 13% -53.7%
all 440 -31.7% -38.2% 23% 20% -36.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.2% 20% -36.5%
10% -44.1% 19% -42.6%
15% ← realistic here -49.5% 18% -48.1%
20% -54.4% 16% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$6,938) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -72% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
20.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,710 vs −$3,901 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$160,537
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses102 / 338
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$6,935
Open positions0
Markets (closed)440 / 166
History coverage93d ⚠
Avg bet$10,854
Trades / day35.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 440 Trades
no open positions (327 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Houston Cougars vs. Baylor Bears Jun 29 $3,024 −$3,024 -100%
Lakers vs. Clippers: O/U 224.5 Jun 29 $2,260 −$2,260 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies Jun 29 $522 −$522 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 29 $1,646 −$1,646 -100%
Mavericks vs. Suns: O/U 228.5 Jun 29 $191 −$191 -100%
Kings vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5 Jun 29 $22,271 −$22,270 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) Jun 29 $4,340 −$3,350 -77%
Senators vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5 Jun 29 $2,354 −$2,354 -100%
Pelicans vs. Jazz Jun 29 $4,800 −$4,800 -100%
Penguins vs. Islanders Jun 29 $7,883 −$7,883 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $712 −$712 -100%
Knicks vs. Nuggets Jun 29 $8,029 −$8,420 -105%
Pistons vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 Jun 29 $720 −$720 -100%
Wizards vs. Nets: O/U 217.5 Jun 29 $2,517 −$2,550 -101%
Pistons vs. Hornets Jun 29 $14,278 −$13,798 -97%
Pacers vs. Clippers Jun 29 $102 −$102 -100%
Toledo Rockets vs. Massachusetts Minutemen: O/U 164.5 Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Nets vs. Heat: O/U 225.5 Jun 29 $6,449 −$6,449 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 29 $2,754 −$2,754 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $346 −$265 -77%
XRP Up or Down - January 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $46 −$46 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 29 $2,221 −$2,221 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5 Jun 29 $422 −$422 -100%
Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-5.5) Jun 29 $2,674 −$2,682 -100%
Suns vs. 76ers Jun 29 $920 −$720 -78%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5 Jun 29 $2,583 −$2,583 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 29 $900 −$900 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 7, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $53 −$53 -100%
76ers vs. Pelicans Jun 29 $1,375 −$2,777 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $1,194 −$1,194 -100%
Magic vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5 Jun 29 $9,449 −$9,449 -100%
Pistons vs. Knicks Jun 29 $12,247 −$12,478 -102%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 29 $1,467 −$1,467 -100%
Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5 Jun 29 $5,060 −$5,060 -100%
Spread: Vikings (-7.5) Jun 29 $2,200 −$2,200 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 6, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 29 $2,984 −$2,984 -100%
Islanders vs. Devils: O/U 5.5 Jun 29 $2,250 −$2,250 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Janice Tjen vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 29 $147 −$147 -100%
Spurs vs. 76ers Jun 29 $5,353 −$5,353 -100%
Heat vs. Kings: O/U 238.5 Jun 29 $2,080 −$2,080 -100%
Spread: Magic (-7.5) Jun 29 $6,500 −$6,650 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $1,410 −$1,410 -100%
Colts vs. Texans: O/U 40.5 Jun 29 $76 −$76 -100%
76ers vs. Pacers Jun 29 $3,600 −$3,600 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Jun 29 $4,821 −$4,821 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $308 −$420 -136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $203 −$203 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5 Jun 29 $4,700 −$4,700 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 29 $66 −$66 -100%
Islanders vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5 Jun 29 $597 −$597 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 57¢ $5,398 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 57¢ $124 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 57¢ $178 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 94¢ $28,103 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 90¢ $0 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 90¢ $573 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,236 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,181 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 60¢ $7,819 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,208 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 61¢ $3,050 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 73¢ $3,524 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 73¢ $3,650 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 73¢ $26 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 73¢ $100 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 44¢ $4,400 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 34¢ $8,737 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 59¢ $5 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 59¢ $834 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 39¢ $7 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 39¢ $10 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 67¢ $94 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 83¢ $11,155 17d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 68¢ $6,656 17d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 45¢ $1,901 17d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 45¢ $45 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records