Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:53:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac09…7c34 sports 111 markets active 0h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$65 (-5%) realized −$64 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%44W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$94
7 days−$61
14 days−$15
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$79
sports 34% −$52
politics 6% +$26
crypto 5% +$29
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -2.9% -12.1% 67% 67% -17.9%
≤30d 19 +5.1% -4.9% 63% 63% -12.3%
≤90d 43 -20.4% -28.0% 44% 44% -15.9%
all 107 -27.8% -34.7% 41% 39% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.7% 39% -15.6%
10% -40.9% 28% -23.7%
15% -46.6% 21% -31.0%
20% -51.9% 13% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$64
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses44 / 63
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 111
History coverage317d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-14%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $31 −$13 -44%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Thunderpick World Ch Jun 25 $40 +$7 +17%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $13 +$3 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $31 +$10 +31%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $26 +$4 +14%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $104 −$103 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $70 +$70 +100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $91 −$90 -99%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League S Jun 21 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 +$31 +43%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$28 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $40 +$8 +21%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$13 +44%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 +$30 +291%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $32 +$16 +49%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? May 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $4 −$4 -98%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 09 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 11 $4 −$4 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Jose Delano vs. Robert Ruchala (Featherweight, Prelim Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Wei Yi win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 06 $22 +$5 +21%
UFC Fight Night: Ethyn Ewing vs. Rafael Estevam (Bantamweight, Main Ca Apr 05 $5 +$4 +89%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca Apr 05 $5 +$6 +114%
UFC Fight Night: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci (Women's Strawweigh Apr 05 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Manolo Zecchini vs. Tommy McMillen (Featherweight, Ma Apr 05 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 03 $3 +$8 +272%
New COVID variant of concern before 2027? Apr 03 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Andrey Esipenko win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber (Women's Flyweight, Ma Mar 29 $3 +$5 +163%
UFC Fight Night: Michael Chiesa vs. Niko Price (Welterweight, Main Car Mar 29 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 29 $7 −$7 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Ca Mar 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will US Cremonese vs. AC Milan end in a draw? Mar 28 $17 −$17 -100%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
T20 Series Malaysia vs Bahrain: Malaysia vs Bahrain Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card) Mar 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Mar 22 $15 +$4 +26%
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Mar 15 $3 +$3 +100%
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $15 +$7 +47%
UFC 326: Michael Johnson vs. Drew Dober (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $13 +$7 +56%
UFC 326: Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long (Bantamweight, Prelims) Mar 08 $10 +$5 +51%
UFC 326: Cody Brundage vs. Donte Johnson (Middleweight, Prelims) Mar 08 $3 +$1 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $17 11m
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 50m
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Thunderpick World Ch SELL UNO MILLE 100¢ $47 1h
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Thunderpick World Ch BUY UNO MILLE 85¢ $40 3h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 30¢ $16 4h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $41 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $31 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $26 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $104 31h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $140 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $32 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $39 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $91 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 4d
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League S SELL OpTic Texas 99¢ $42 4d
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League S BUY OpTic Texas 70¢ $30 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $71 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 1¢ $3 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 94¢ $49 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY 3¢ $3 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $44 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.88 · official $12.88 (match) · 281 history records