Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:15:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AC 0xac07…0745 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 624d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate79%27W / 7L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 35% −$3
other 27% $0
politics 22% −$2
sports 9% −$1
crypto 5% +$1
world 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.9% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 4 +0.9% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 12 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 34 -0.5% -10.0% 79% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 6% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 3% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

624d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses27 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)34 / 40
History coverage624d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 87¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 26 $12 $0 +2%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 26 $33 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 26 $82 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 21 $112 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 21 $25 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Apr 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Apr 21 $60 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? Mar 07 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Mar 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Mar 07 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Feb 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? Feb 09 $83 $0 +0%
Cardinals vs. Buccaneers Jan 22 $1 +$1 +59%
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers Jan 22 $2 $0 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Jan 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025? Jan 22 $49 $0 +0%
Texans vs. Colts Nov 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Nov 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will Michael Bloomberg win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Nov 30 $46 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Aug 18 $25 $0 +1%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 05 $60 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting? Oct 11 $1,623 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $200 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 11 $1,425 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Foden win the Ballon d’Or? Oct 11 $1,627 −$2 -0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Oct 11 $629 −$1 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after November 2024 meeting? Oct 11 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $66 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $5 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $17 1h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $82 36d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 36d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 99¢ $33 36d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $12 36d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 36d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $112 66d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 66d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 66d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 66d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 111d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 111d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $50 111d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 137d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $24 137d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $40 137d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $25 137d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $83 155d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $20 155d
Texans vs. Colts BUY Colts 62¢ $1 208d
Cardinals vs. Buccaneers BUY Buccaneers 63¢ $1 208d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $49 208d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $20 208d
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers BUY Thunder 87¢ $2 208d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $30 208d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $20 271d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.62 · official $162.73 (match) · 113 history records