Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:03:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AC 0xac06…f93d sports 317 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 101d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,897 (-8%) realized −$10,883 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate66%194W / 101L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$452per market
Trades / day28.8pace
Fees−$812est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 102d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$4,313
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -2.8% -12.1% 50% 46% -23.2%
≤30d 70 -2.8% -12.1% 50% 46% -23.2%
≤90d 188 -6.3% -15.2% 61% 25% -12.5%
all 295 -3.3% -12.5% 66% 21% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 21% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 17% -20.6%
15% -28.5% 15% -28.3%
20% -35.5% 11% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$581) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$97 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$224
Realized−$10,883
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses194 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$812
Open positions22
Markets (closed)295 / 317
History coverage102d ⚠
Avg bet$452
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 295 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Sashi Esport 53¢ 81¢ $26 $40 +$14 (+53%)
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) Walczaki 52¢ 50¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B K27 56¢ 50¢ $18 $17 −$2 (-10%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner K27 50¢ 51¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Shopify Rebellion Black 65¢ 63¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner K27 52¢ 50¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 Winner Shopify Rebellion Black 65¢ 56¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-15%)
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 Winner Shopify Rebellion Black 65¢ 55¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-15%)
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season T1 Academy 54¢ 44¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-19%)
Valorant: ROSE vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage ROSE 41¢ 41¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 50¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-8%)
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A AlQadsiah Esports 46¢ 38¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-16%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Tamara Zidansek Tamara Zidansek 20¢ 24¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs OlyBet SB 27¢ 20¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-24%)
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Group B Game Hunters 26¢ 34¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+33%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Karmine Corp 77¢ 75¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Season LAZER 25¢ 32¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group C MIBR Academy 59¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Group B Yawara Esports 56¢ 59¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season So:sweet 33¢ 40¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) Sashi Esport 25¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Overwatch: 99DIVINE vs REVATI (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage REVATI 34¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $39 +$32 +82%
Game Handicap: RE (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) Jun 23 $29 +$21 +72%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Jun 23 $23 −$3 -13%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch Jun 22 $27 −$8 -29%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $24 +$25 +104%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 3 Winner Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics - Game 3 Winner Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 22 $10 +$14 +138%
Map Handicap: UCAM (-1.5) vs Pixel Lumina (+1.5) Jun 22 $14 +$17 +127%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $16 +$9 +59%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo Jun 22 $4 $0 +0%
Honor of Kings: Royal Never Give Up vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro Leag Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Overwatch: Weibo Gaming vs Four Angry Men (BO3) - OCS China Stage 2 Ro Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs Four Angry Men (BO3) - CN League Stag Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $13 +$12 +89%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $13 +$12 +89%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $16 +$10 +61%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $30 +$3 +11%
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs WST - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $18 +$7 +37%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Jun 21 $15 +$8 +49%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 21 $8 +$17 +203%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag Jun 21 $18 +$7 +41%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $5 +$1 +22%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $18 +$7 +41%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $58 +$16 +28%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs ReThink - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: WROTBERRY vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European F Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Cloud9 New York - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $35 −$21 -59%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Cloud9 New York - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $19 +$6 +30%
Honor of Kings: Wolves vs Douyu Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 20 $18 +$7 +41%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis Jun 20 $8 +$17 +233%
Honor of Kings: Team WE vs Talent Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 20 $16 −$4 -26%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 20 $8 +$17 +212%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $1 +$1 +104%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Boston Breach - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $50 −$19 -38%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Cloud9 New York - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 56¢ $1 30m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 56¢ $13 30m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL MODUS 91¢ $70 59m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Tamara Zidansek BUY Tamara Zidansek 20¢ $5 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Tamara Zidansek BUY Tamara Zidansek 20¢ $0 1h
Game Handicap: RE (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) SELL MODUS 100¢ $50 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 49¢ $39 1h
Game Handicap: RE (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) BUY MODUS 58¢ $29 5h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY MIBR Academy 59¢ $2 5h
Overwatch: 99DIVINE vs REVATI (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY REVATI 34¢ $3 5h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 6h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 6h
Overwatch: 99DIVINE vs REVATI (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY REVATI 34¢ $1 10h
Overwatch: 99DIVINE vs REVATI (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY REVATI 34¢ $1 11h
Overwatch: 99DIVINE vs REVATI (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY REVATI 34¢ $3 11h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 SELL Alpha Gaming 50¢ $5 12h
Overwatch: 99DIVINE vs REVATI (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY REVATI 34¢ $2 15h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Yawara Esports 56¢ $1 15h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) BUY Walczaki 53¢ $10 16h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) BUY Walczaki 53¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch SELL MIBR fe 31¢ $16 16h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN - Map 1 Winner SELL ShindeN 100¢ $50 16h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN - Map 1 Winner BUY ShindeN 49¢ $6 17h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN - Map 1 Winner BUY ShindeN 49¢ $19 17h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch SELL MIBR fe 37¢ $3 17h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $4 17h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 17h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge BUY OlyBet SB 27¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge BUY OlyBet SB 27¢ $2 18h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge BUY OlyBet SB 27¢ $3 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.01 · official $224.01 (match) · 3500 history records