Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:57:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AC
0xac02…b942
sports · 655 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$630 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$873 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$39
Realized−$873
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses286 / 363
Est. fees paid−$171
Open positions6
Markets (closed)649 / 655
History coverage68d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day39.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 6 History 649 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days+$5
14 days−$106
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Yes 55¢ 63¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+15%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Yes 76¢ 42¢ $13 $7 −$6 (-45%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 28¢ 23¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-17%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 37¢ 30¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-18%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-1%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 47¢ 33¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May? No 19¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $38 +$6 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -62%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $15 −$2 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $21 −$5 -24%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 13 $9 −$7 -80%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J Jun 12 $12 −$5 -45%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $44 +$17 +39%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $38 +$10 +28%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $4 $0 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $7 +$2 +30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $5 $0 -6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $12 −$6 -49%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 10 $7 −$3 -38%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $22 +$2 +11%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -27%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $6 +$2 +29%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $6 −$2 -37%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 04 $91 −$3 -3%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 04 $3 −$1 -24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $47 −$16 -34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $258 −$91 -36%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $3 +$4 +137%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $3 +$1 +40%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $129 +$19 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $220 +$14 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 29 $41 −$11 -28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 29 $42 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $261 −$12 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $15 −$1 -9%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $49 −$19 -38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 29 $25 −$6 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $181 +$24 +13%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $24 +$7 +29%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $30 −$3 -9%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $78 +$2 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $20 −$3 -17%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 26 $61 −$19 -30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 25 $20 −$4 -19%
Another confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? May 25 $20 −$7 -35%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 25 $81 +$10 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $44 +$45 +102%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $198 −$18 -9%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $29 +$8 +28%
Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans? May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 61% −$526
world 25% −$9
crypto 6% −$210
other 5% −$102
politics 2% −$23
tech 0% −$10
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 22¢ $0 19m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 21¢ $0 19m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $1 54m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 25¢ $4 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 32¢ $3 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 13h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 62¢ $1 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 63¢ $0 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 61¢ $1 17h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 17h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $0 18h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $0 18h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $1 18h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $0 18h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $0 18h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $0 18h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 18h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 18h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 18h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 39¢ $1 18h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 53¢ $2 18h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 25¢ $0 19h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 57¢ $3 19h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 20h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 20h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -13.0% -21.3% 43% 33% -7.9%
≤30d 65 -7.5% -16.3% 40% 32% -8.3%
≤90d 649 -13.8% -22.0% 44% 33% -14.0%
all 649 -13.8% -22.0% 44% 33% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover39.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.0% 33% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -29.4% 24% -22.2%
15% -36.3% 20% -29.7%
20% -42.5% 14% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.33 · official $39.29 (match) · 3065 history records