Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:18:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

AB 0xabff…9e8f sports 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,560 (+15%) realized +$1,350 · open +$210

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip

Net edge+11%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate55%12W / 10L

Whale WR50%big bets

Drawdown95%max

Avg bet$430per market

Trades / day6.1pace

Fees−$117est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$1,210now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)+15.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	+27.2%	+15.1%	55%	55%	+5.0%
≤30d	22	+27.2%	+15.1%	55%	55%	+5.0%
≤90d	22	+27.2%	+15.1%	55%	55%	+5.0%
all	22	+27.2%	+15.1%	55%	55%	+5.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+15.1%	55%	+5.0%
10%	+4.1%	55%	-5.0%
15%	-6.0%	55%	-14.2%
20%	-15.2%	50%	-22.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +27% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 50% (≥$506) neutral

Persistence

early +33% → late +21% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$501 vs −$452 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.33 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$1,210

Realized+$1,350

Unrealized+$210

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses12 / 10

Whale WR (big bets)50%

Est. fees paid−$117

Open positions2

Markets (closed)22 / 24

History coverage5d

Avg bet$430

Trades / day6.1

Drawdown95%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Over	49¢	100¢	$500	$1,025	+$525 (+105%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	No	50¢	18¢	$500	$185	−$315 (-63%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 17	$506	+$341	+67%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$508	−$500	-98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$306	+$728	+238%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$508	−$500	-98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$408	+$734	+180%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$406	+$363	+89%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$408	−$400	-98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Jun 15	$407	−$400	-98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$356	+$388	+109%
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	Jun 15	$202	+$101	+50%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals	Jun 15	$255	−$250	-98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$305	+$377	+124%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador?	Jun 14	$48	−$47	-98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$306	−$300	-98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$409	+$969	+237%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$406	+$426	+105%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$507	+$418	+82%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$576	−$569	-99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$1,013	−$1,000	-99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 12	$306	+$764	+249%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	Jun 12	$593	+$400	+67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$566	−$558	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	50¢	$508	12m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$508	1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	59¢	$506	23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	44¢	$508	29h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$306	44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$508	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	100¢	$1,142	2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	100¢	$768	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	37¢	$408	2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Uruguay	42¢	$407	2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	52¢	$406	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	35¢	$408	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	100¢	$744	2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	SELL Cabo Verde	100¢	$303	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	47¢	$356	2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	32¢	$255	2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	BUY Cabo Verde	66¢	$202	2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador?	BUY Yes	15¢	$48	2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	44¢	$305	2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	32¢	$306	2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,378	2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$832	2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$406	3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$409	3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	SELL Germany	100¢	$925	3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	54¢	$507	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$576	3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	57¢	$1,013	4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,070	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY No	55¢	$566	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,210.45 · official $1,230.45 · 37 history records