Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:12:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xabfe…5ff9 politics 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%8W / 87L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$15
politics 35% −$11
crypto 5% −$1
sports 5% +$38
tech 4% −$1
world 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 84 -1.4% -10.8% 4% 1% -9.7%
all 95 +4.8% -5.2% 8% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 5% -9.5%
10% -14.3% 4% -18.2%
15% -22.6% 3% -26.1%
20% -30.1% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×11.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses8 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage116d
Avg bet$293
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $391 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $37 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $346 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $53 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $241 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $269 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $306 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $264 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $298 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $334 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $284 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $325 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $762 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $272 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $278 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $343 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $285 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $338 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $295 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $343 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $268 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $297 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $295 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $252 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $320 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $324 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $274 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $310 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $236 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $338 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $289 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $325 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 13 $326 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $342 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $283 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 08 $331 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 08 $264 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 08 $312 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $255 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $252 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 4h
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 5h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $42 5h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $42 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 7d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $38 10d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 10d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 11d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 11d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 14d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 15d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 21d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 22d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $241 27d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $241 28d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $269 28d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $269 29d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $300 29d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $300 30d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $306 32d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $306 34d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $264 35d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $264 36d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $296 36d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $296 37d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $296 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 275 history records