Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:08:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xabfd…3538 other 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$19
politics 30% −$13
sports 10% +$24
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 95 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 134 -1.8% -11.2% 9% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 4% -9.5%
10% -19.7% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.4% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.5% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×8.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage132d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $453 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 21 $271 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $214 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $24 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $31 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $736 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 06 $30 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $681 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $245 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $208 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $835 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $196 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $221 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $468 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $225 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $236 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $232 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $247 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $235 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $177 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $248 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $702 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $223 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $471 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $207 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $223 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $55 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 26 $218 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $181 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $236 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $400 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $220 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 22 $215 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $417 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $235 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $179 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 10h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 18h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $23 20h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $23 39h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 39h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 41h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 41h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 2d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 7d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $21 9d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 10d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $26 11d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $26 12d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $24 12d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $24 12d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 13d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 14d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 14d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 15d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $30 15d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $30 15d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 22d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 22d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $178 22d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $178 24d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $190 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.98 · official $33.98 (match) · 430 history records