Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xabfc…81ae other 40 markets active 8h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%12W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$3
world 29% +$6
sports 12% −$3
politics 9% $0
crypto 8% $0
tech 4% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.4% -11.7% 33% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 29% 14% -6.9%
≤90d 9 +0.3% -9.2% 33% 11% -7.2%
all 39 -1.6% -11.0% 31% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 3% -9.5%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses12 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage255d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 57¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $58 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $55 +$2 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $56 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $25 +$5 +20%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $3 $0 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 11 $5 −$3 -57%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $54 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $56 −$2 -4%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 20 $20 $0 -1%
Will Solana reach $250 in October? Nov 14 $18 $0 +2%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 23 $24 $0 -2%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31? Oct 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Jimmy Kimmel be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film) by KPop Dem Oct 22 $21 $0 -0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Oct 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 21 $3 $0 -1%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 20 $17 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21? Oct 20 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 19 $21 $0 -1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Oct 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October Oct 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 09 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $50 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $8 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $58 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $52 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $52 40h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $57 45h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $55 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $42 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $14 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $56 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $44 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $44 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $25 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 26d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 26d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 51¢ $23 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 51¢ $23 26d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $7 87d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 190d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 196d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 196d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 196d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 196d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.34 · official $0.00 (match) · 157 history records