Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AB 0xabfc…4247 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,107 (+33%) realized +$1,107 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$247
7 days+$585
14 days+$585
30 days+$585
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$21
sports 29% +$867
crypto 6% −$200
world 3% −$83
economics 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -4.5% -13.6% 31% 31% +6.5%
≤30d 13 -4.5% -13.6% 31% 31% +6.5%
≤90d 13 -4.5% -13.6% 31% 31% +6.5%
all 13 -4.5% -13.6% 31% 31% +6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 31% +6.5%
10% -21.9% 31% -3.7%
15% -29.4% 31% -13.0%
20% -36.4% 31% -21.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$468 vs −$143 · ×3.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage7d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $616 −$195 -32%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $307 −$290 -94%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$136 +134%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $902 +$716 +79%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $454 +$572 +126%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $109 +$449 +413%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 14 $97 −$83 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $210 −$200 -95%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $205 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records